Wednesday

let the market decide...

Add another site to track for political junkies and people who just wanna know the future.

There's SUSA, Rassmussen, Zogby and the rest actually doing the polling. Then there's aggregate sites such as here, here, and here (last one is the very user-friendly USA Today, but not frequently updated and not very in-depth). THEN there's RealClearPolitics and Pollster that average the aggregate data...

Now add one more layer on top of that. ElectoralMap.net is a site that makes state-by-state predictions based on Intrade - a website that facilitates 'investments' that internet-people make on certain events happening or not. Basically people wager money on what the outcomes of certain events will be and there is money to be won (or lost). The idea being that people take a look at the polls, the history, and all of the other confounding variables... and then put money on what they think the outcome will be state-by-state. This is then tabulated by ElectoralMap.net and the future (as it is seen now) is right in front of your eyes:



An interesting aspect of this map is that it is updated (weekly, according to their description), so you can see how the states are trending. Obviously this map looks very good for the Dems. Another positive note, though, is that all of the movement over the past 2-3 weeks has been around the Republicans. The Democrat has been solid at 289 since 5/24 and since then some states have been opening up from the Republicans (notably VA) or solidifying around the Dem (PA, for instance).

I'd say keep an eye on this site because it will probably offer a tremendously processed, but fairly accurate prediction of how things will transpire.

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