This time through sheer neglect. For anyone who hasn't heard about this... here's Jon Stewart of the Daily Show who sums it up quite nicely:
AMAZING!
Tuesday
John McCain: "aware of the Internet"
well I feel better... now we just have to convince him that it isn't a series of tubes that Al Gore invented and we'll be halfway there!You don’t necessarily have to use a computer to understand, you know, how it shapes the country. … John McCain is aware of the Internet.
--Mark SooHoo, McCain aide
Monday
I want to see:
the new Coen brothers film "Burn After Reading". It seems (from the trailer) to be less "No Country for Old Men" and more "The Big Lebowski". Check it:
Sunday
Wednesday
Tuesday
Monday
Presidential politics in the YouTube era...
The past few years have restored my faith in the democratic process. Overall it seemed as though politics (on a national scale) was so beholden to a corporate media, and the media was so beholden to the politicians, that it was a never-ending cycle and self fulfilling prophecy whenever there was an election.
Then, in February of 2005, a group of former paypal employees came together to create YouTube. I, for one, didn't appreciate the political impact it would have until the summer of 2006 when VA Senator George Allen referred to one of his opponents aides (who was videotaping the rally) as 'macaca' and the video spread around the internet (thanks, in part, to YouTube). Because of the interest on the web it hit the mainstream press and before Allen could think of a way to excuse the whole incident away, Jim Webb was being sworn in as the freshman Senator from VA.
Now it seems as though the real power of YouTube isn't in waiting for 'gotcha' moments (such as Allen's 'macacalypse') but for exposing the truth behind the rhetoric. McCain's going to have an especially tough time over the next few months if he doesn't learn the power of this new medium really quickly (which might be difficult given his admitted technical ineptitude). It almost reminds me of the Kennedy-Nixon race in 1960 when Kennedy wore makeup for the first televised debates and Nixon chose not to. Those who listened on the radio thought Nixon won the debate whereas those who watched on television gave an overwhelming victory (in the debate) to Kennedy. Hence the power of controlling the medium of the day.
Here are some examples of McCain's inability to shape the argument as in the days of old because of the power of YouTube:
Then, in February of 2005, a group of former paypal employees came together to create YouTube. I, for one, didn't appreciate the political impact it would have until the summer of 2006 when VA Senator George Allen referred to one of his opponents aides (who was videotaping the rally) as 'macaca' and the video spread around the internet (thanks, in part, to YouTube). Because of the interest on the web it hit the mainstream press and before Allen could think of a way to excuse the whole incident away, Jim Webb was being sworn in as the freshman Senator from VA.
Now it seems as though the real power of YouTube isn't in waiting for 'gotcha' moments (such as Allen's 'macacalypse') but for exposing the truth behind the rhetoric. McCain's going to have an especially tough time over the next few months if he doesn't learn the power of this new medium really quickly (which might be difficult given his admitted technical ineptitude). It almost reminds me of the Kennedy-Nixon race in 1960 when Kennedy wore makeup for the first televised debates and Nixon chose not to. Those who listened on the radio thought Nixon won the debate whereas those who watched on television gave an overwhelming victory (in the debate) to Kennedy. Hence the power of controlling the medium of the day.
Here are some examples of McCain's inability to shape the argument as in the days of old because of the power of YouTube:
another benefit of $4/gallon gas?
It appears as though gas prices are going to stay in the stratosphere for the foreseeable future (or indefinitely). While everyone is focusing on all of the negatives of this current energy situation, there is as always a silver lining. Among the benefits is the fact the politicians and the citizenry are finally getting serious about public transportation (aka the 'light rail') in the Seattle metro area. This is something that Seattle has needed for a long time, and it has consistently been tripped up by the crazy Washington state politics (as recently as November '07) - all it took was a trumped-up war, the fall of the Dollar, the rise of China, and people being ridiculously selfish.
all in the past
if the past were the future, then this would be a relevant analysis... meanwhile, I'm still going to fight tooth and nail until Obama takes the oath of office on 1/20/2009.
Friday
Wednesday
send your baby to Barack!
Obama's a busy guy these days, having locked up his party's nomination. With so many babies out there in the world to kiss, there's no way he can get to all of them - I mean he's good, but he's no Santa Claus.
That's why you should send your baby to Barack! Here's a shipping form for you to fill out:
(My favorite part is the "what would you like Senator Obama to do with your baby?" question. The options: kiss, hug, give hope...)
That's why you should send your baby to Barack! Here's a shipping form for you to fill out:
(My favorite part is the "what would you like Senator Obama to do with your baby?" question. The options: kiss, hug, give hope...)
VP
Over at The Huffington Post there's a story up that (indirectly) outlines why I think Wes Clark would be a great VP nominee choice for the Obama campaign. He would fit in nicely with the Obama message, is smart and not reactionary about foreign policy, and is credible to attack John McCain on one of his biggest perceived strengths: foreign/military policy. As soon as Obama starts attacking McCain directly, the McCain campaign can point to his lack of experience and military service (as they have with the debate over the 'new' GI Bill of Rights). That's a sticky situation, but in reality McCain is vulnerable on this issue given the right position for attack, which makes a retired general with progressive political views and a dedicated netroots base a great choice for Obama.
To understand what I'm getting at, I highly recommend you read the HuffPo article.
let the market decide...
Add another site to track for political junkies and people who just wanna know the future.
There's SUSA, Rassmussen, Zogby and the rest actually doing the polling. Then there's aggregate sites such as here, here, and here (last one is the very user-friendly USA Today, but not frequently updated and not very in-depth). THEN there's RealClearPolitics and Pollster that average the aggregate data...
Now add one more layer on top of that. ElectoralMap.net is a site that makes state-by-state predictions based on Intrade - a website that facilitates 'investments' that internet-people make on certain events happening or not. Basically people wager money on what the outcomes of certain events will be and there is money to be won (or lost). The idea being that people take a look at the polls, the history, and all of the other confounding variables... and then put money on what they think the outcome will be state-by-state. This is then tabulated by ElectoralMap.net and the future (as it is seen now) is right in front of your eyes:
An interesting aspect of this map is that it is updated (weekly, according to their description), so you can see how the states are trending. Obviously this map looks very good for the Dems. Another positive note, though, is that all of the movement over the past 2-3 weeks has been around the Republicans. The Democrat has been solid at 289 since 5/24 and since then some states have been opening up from the Republicans (notably VA) or solidifying around the Dem (PA, for instance).
I'd say keep an eye on this site because it will probably offer a tremendously processed, but fairly accurate prediction of how things will transpire.
There's SUSA, Rassmussen, Zogby and the rest actually doing the polling. Then there's aggregate sites such as here, here, and here (last one is the very user-friendly USA Today, but not frequently updated and not very in-depth). THEN there's RealClearPolitics and Pollster that average the aggregate data...
Now add one more layer on top of that. ElectoralMap.net is a site that makes state-by-state predictions based on Intrade - a website that facilitates 'investments' that internet-people make on certain events happening or not. Basically people wager money on what the outcomes of certain events will be and there is money to be won (or lost). The idea being that people take a look at the polls, the history, and all of the other confounding variables... and then put money on what they think the outcome will be state-by-state. This is then tabulated by ElectoralMap.net and the future (as it is seen now) is right in front of your eyes:
An interesting aspect of this map is that it is updated (weekly, according to their description), so you can see how the states are trending. Obviously this map looks very good for the Dems. Another positive note, though, is that all of the movement over the past 2-3 weeks has been around the Republicans. The Democrat has been solid at 289 since 5/24 and since then some states have been opening up from the Republicans (notably VA) or solidifying around the Dem (PA, for instance).
I'd say keep an eye on this site because it will probably offer a tremendously processed, but fairly accurate prediction of how things will transpire.
Monday
I've waited my whole life...
... for e-cards like these. The folks over at someecards.com have tapped in to the use of wacky captioned clip-art to communicate heart-felt truths about the human condition. Observe:
you'll all receiving these cards from me on the anniversary of you being expelled from your mother's uterus.
you'll all receiving these cards from me on the anniversary of you being expelled from your mother's uterus.
$4 for a gallon of gas...
$5/gallon can't be too far off.
And there's an analysis of who's getting hit the hardest by the squeeze at the pump: rural America. This doesn't really come as a surprise (rural = everything is spread out, urban = everything is close together, public transportation, etc.) but still, I wonder if this will have an effect on the "What's the Matter with Kansas" phenomenon.
From the NYT today, a map showing county-by-county the percent of household income spent on gasoline:
Because of this, McCain's back to pushing the much maligned (by just about every credible economist) 'gas tax holiday' idea.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will people buy into the smoke & mirrors of the gas tax holiday? Or will they see the charade for what it is and flip the "What's the matter with Kansas" idea on it's head? Something tells me that this will (a) be the central issue in the campaign this summer and (b) be an indicator as to whether Obama's new, 'honest' politics will work to convince the good people in Kansas (and other areas) what's actually wrong - Republican leadership and corporate special interests.
And there's an analysis of who's getting hit the hardest by the squeeze at the pump: rural America. This doesn't really come as a surprise (rural = everything is spread out, urban = everything is close together, public transportation, etc.) but still, I wonder if this will have an effect on the "What's the Matter with Kansas" phenomenon.
From the NYT today, a map showing county-by-county the percent of household income spent on gasoline:
Because of this, McCain's back to pushing the much maligned (by just about every credible economist) 'gas tax holiday' idea.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will people buy into the smoke & mirrors of the gas tax holiday? Or will they see the charade for what it is and flip the "What's the matter with Kansas" idea on it's head? Something tells me that this will (a) be the central issue in the campaign this summer and (b) be an indicator as to whether Obama's new, 'honest' politics will work to convince the good people in Kansas (and other areas) what's actually wrong - Republican leadership and corporate special interests.
black president
There's a new song out there about the 2008 Presidential Election. Nas takes a crack with a song that samples Tupac's Changes -
This also reminds me of the hilarious Chappelle Show skit from a few years ago where Dave plays "black Bush". For laughs:
"although it seems heaven sent, we ain't ready to have a black president"- and flips it on it's head. This song's theme isn't as blindingly hopeful as the will.i.am song from February (it's also better, imo), but I think it does capture the feeling of what's going on - cautiously optimistic. Have a listen below:
This also reminds me of the hilarious Chappelle Show skit from a few years ago where Dave plays "black Bush". For laughs:
lately I've been listening to:
I've had Dead Prez - Hip Hop going through my head a lot lately... "It's bigger than hip - hop - hip - hop..."
unh! 's good:
unh! 's good:
Sunday
270 to win
Now that each party's nominee has been selected (though not yet made official by their respective conventions), it's time to turn our attention to the general election.
I think everyone knows by now how the general election works: each state has a set number of electoral college delegates that are committed to each candidate based on who wins each state and the candidate who garners the majority (i.e. over 270 electoral college delegates) wins. So it now comes down to a state-by-state battle between John McCain and Barack Obama over the next 5 months to determine who will be the 44th POTUS.
To help sort out how the state-by-state contest is going, I'd like to point out this website (270towin.com). You can generate your own swing state predictions, analyze historical results, and keep track of the latest polling data. My first crack at an electoral college map for 2008 is below (it assumes Obama's able to nab NC and MT away from the McCain and also carries CO, PA, WI, MI, MN, OR, and WA which have all been listed by some as swing states).
Have fun!
I think everyone knows by now how the general election works: each state has a set number of electoral college delegates that are committed to each candidate based on who wins each state and the candidate who garners the majority (i.e. over 270 electoral college delegates) wins. So it now comes down to a state-by-state battle between John McCain and Barack Obama over the next 5 months to determine who will be the 44th POTUS.
To help sort out how the state-by-state contest is going, I'd like to point out this website (270towin.com). You can generate your own swing state predictions, analyze historical results, and keep track of the latest polling data. My first crack at an electoral college map for 2008 is below (it assumes Obama's able to nab NC and MT away from the McCain and also carries CO, PA, WI, MI, MN, OR, and WA which have all been listed by some as swing states).
Have fun!
Saturday
Wednesday
Clinton winding down...
Though Clinton didn't officially concede the nomination last night, she's been making all the motions that she's going to. And now it comes out that Clinton may well officially concede on Friday in NY. She and Obama are likely to meet between now and then as well (probably to discuss the terms of her concession, what she wants in return, etc.). All of this comes as the reality is setting in for everyone that Obama is the nominee of the Democratic party for 2008.
The NYT has an interesting postmortem on the Clinton campaign today - a kind of "where do we go from here" perspective on the choices that the campaign and it's supporters are facing.
Meanwhile, the Obama camp has formed their official VP search committee (the group tasked with doing the research on potential running mates for the candidate). Included on the committee are:
The NYT has an interesting postmortem on the Clinton campaign today - a kind of "where do we go from here" perspective on the choices that the campaign and it's supporters are facing.
Meanwhile, the Obama camp has formed their official VP search committee (the group tasked with doing the research on potential running mates for the candidate). Included on the committee are:
- Caroline Kennedy - Obama supporter, daughter to JFK, new to this whole politics game
- Eric Holder - Deputy AG under Bill Clinton and one of Obama's lead lawyers
- Jim Johnson - former Fannie Mae CEO and on the VP committee of former candidates John Kerry and Walter Mondale
Tuesday
sidebar RE: 8/28/2008
Interesting things that will/may happen on Thursday, August 28, 2008 (8/28/2008 - nice ring to it):
- Obama's* acceptance speech in Denver (see below)
- U.S. Open Finals in NYC
- pre-season finale/Super Bowl rematch: Patriots v. Giants in NY
- the final game of a Red Sox-Yankees series in Yankee stadium
- the world's biggest mall will open in Dubai
- Some other completely random, yet somehow meaningful event somewhere else in the world
interesting note
I'm sure that we will all be brow-beaten with this historical point over the next 12 weeks, but I came across this today and found it interesting. The nominee of the Democratic party - almost certainly Barack Obama - will be delivering his convention acceptance speech on the last day of the DNC Convention on August 28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado. That will happen to be exactly 45 years (to the day) from when Martin Luther King, Jr. delivered his "I have a dream..." speech on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial on August 28, 1963.
Exactly 45 years after King shared his dream, Obama will (likely) accept the nomination of the party that has helped make King's dream more of a reality. We're not there yet, but wouldn't that be something...
Exactly 45 years after King shared his dream, Obama will (likely) accept the nomination of the party that has helped make King's dream more of a reality. We're not there yet, but wouldn't that be something...
Monday
remember when...
Hillary Clinton was the Democratic Presidential nominee front-runner? A year ago all anyone could talk about was how Clinton was solidly out front and Obama was making the gaffes of a political neophyte. Now, however, it seems we are 180 degrees from where we were a 365 days ago (i.e. a political eternity). Obama was still on message though, even back then:
How times have changed... in some ways... but not in others.
"What we've seen over the last six years is the effort to replace bluster and belligerence and saber-rattling for solid diplomacy and strategy and foresight." — Sen. Barack Obama, D-IllinoisNobody was shouting 'appeasement' from the rooftops then as they are now, though... probably because then he trailed Clinton by 17 percentage points nationally among Democrats where today Obama holds the clear delegate lead and will likely achieve the (newest) threshold for nomination: 2118 delegates.
How times have changed... in some ways... but not in others.
pretty good slog comments...
There was a slog post about Obama's offer to meet with Clinton at "a time and place of her choosing" to discuss the future of the Democratic race/party/civilization/etc. - it was funny. I think the best part are the suggestions from the commentators about 'when and where' Clinton might choose...
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