veepstakes

Now that each political party's presidential candidate is all-but decided, comes the speculative, tea leaf-reading season of the veepstakes. Who will each candidate choose to be #2? What are the driving factors? Will it be Obama/Clinton as has been the buzz since Clinton first seemed bested by Obama in late February?

The Politico's Jonathan Martin wrote a piece about it today. Over at the TPMCafé they've got a speculative comments section to which every joe-schmo is posting their choice(s). MSNBC even has a bracket (similar to those employed in the NCAA tourneys) - though, presently only for the Republican VP spot, since the Dem race isn't 'officially' over yet.

Want my thoughts? Of course you do, that's why you're here:

The goal for each candidate in choosing a VP candidate is to minimize potential electoral weaknesses. One of John McCain's biggest political liabilities in this election cycle is his close relationship with George W. Bush. Therefore he's going to have to alienate his base and choose someone more moderate/liberal/critical of the Bush administration to round out the ticket and distance himself from President 27%-approva-rating (lowest in recorded history). Who do I think that could be? I'm going to float the four potentials that (IMHO) would be the most beneficial to the McCain ticket:

• Bobby Jindal (LA governor) - major up-and-comer in the Republican party, likely nominee in 2012 or 2016, though his age (almost 37) might highlight one of McCain's bigger weaknesses - his age (almost 72)
  
• Condoleezza Rice (Sec. State) - would be another link to the Bush WH, but she is seen as strong on foreign policy and would be an interesting choice for the McCain campaign
  
• Joe Lieberman (CT senator, Dem) - Lieberman has been 'campaigning' with McCain this spring and has echoed (almost) everyone one of the McCain talking points (especially those criticizing Obama), in addition a choice of a noted Dem (and one that was on the Dem ticket in 2000) would be seen as a 'bipartisan' move, though Lieberman has been all-but excommunicated from the Democratic party at this point; this potential choice is one that scares me the most
  
• Mike Huckabee (AK governor) - would consolidate the religious right around McCain (finally), though probably doesn't bring much more than that
  
• Colin Powell (fmr. Sec. State) - Powell would be an interesting choice as he wouldn't help to distance McCain from the Bush WH very much, though Powell has been a dissenting voice to the Bush administration and might (oddly) help draw that distinction more clearly; it could also completely backfire on McCain
• Other names are out there (FL gov Crist and Mitt Romney, for example), but these are the ones that I think might give McCain the best shot... though I don't really understand the Republican party as well as I understand the Democrats...
  

On the Democratic end of things, people have been clamoring to get Hillary as the VP choice for Obama. Clearly she's demonstrated herself to be a very effective candidate, though I doubt she'll be the Obama campaign's choice on this one for several reasons - including potentially upstaging the candidate, the political liability that has become Bill Clinton, and the fact that the Clinton and Obama campaigns differ (fundamentally) on how to run campaigns of this nature (from the 50-state strategy down to the overall tone of the campaign - 'kitchen sink' etc.). No, I doubt the Obama campaign will offer the VP nomination to Clinton unless their hand gets forced (which is likely). In addition, when considering Obama's potential political weaknesses up against McCain - 'inexperience' (esp. wrt foreign/military policy), and the 'working-class' voters - Clinton doesn't really bring as much to the table as some other potential names that are out there. Here's my list of potentials and how they'd beef-up Obama's chances:

• John Edwards - not going to happen, pipe dream; strong ticket but with his wife being ill I doubt Edwards is willing to campaign.
  
• Jim Webb (VA senator) - tough to pull a D out of the senate, strong military background and 'straight shooter' image; potential negative is that he's seen as a bit of a misogynist by some which wouldn't help unify the Clintonites with the rest of the party (true or not)
  
• Tim Kaine (VA governor) - as with Webb, would help in VA (a potential battleground state) but doesn't have the downside of losing a strong D senator
  
• Kathleen Sebelius (KS governor) - again, pluses are that she's a governor, an up-and-comer, and a woman; she doesn't help much on the foreign policy front
  
• Janet Napolitano (AZ governor) - similar pluses as Sebelius, though she doesn't bring geography (with McCain expected with win AZ pretty handily)
  
• Joe Biden (DE senator) - strong candidate with lots of experience, he'd take a strong voice away from the senate where some are thinking he could be majority leader come 2009
  
• Bill Richardson (NM governor) - again, that he's a popular governor in a potential battleground state is a huge plus, also he's Hispanic (thus potentially helping Obama with a demographic that he's had trouble with), and he's got lots of 'experience' (serving in the Clinton WH), though little in foreign policy.
  
• Wes Clark (ret four-star general) - Clark is my current favorite among this list; he's about as strong as the come in foreign and military policy (having been the Supreme Allied Commander in the Kosovo war in the 90's), he's also been a staunch opponent of the Iraq war since the beginning (like Obama), he's a Clintonite (and could be seen as a move to unify the party); the only real downside is that he hasn't been through many campaigns and so is a little more wet-behind-the-ears to be on a national ticket, but I think that the Obama campaign can groom him to be quite successful, given their track record over the primary season

Others? Thoughts? I welcome suggestions and a discussion of these potentials. Also, I'm sure it will morph over the next month or so as each of these choices gets vetted. Ultimately it may wind up being McCain/Lieberman v. Obama/Clinton, but I don't see this as a strong match-up for the Dems and I hope the Obama campaign has the political liberty to choose someone else.