My analysis shows Obama is presently leading Clinton by 154 pledged delegates (not including superdels). Now, over the next 11 days a series of events are going to happen that are going to spell the last official battlegrounds for the Clinton and Obama campaigns before the convention in Denver this August.
1) Saturday, May 31st: the DNC rules committee meets for the final time before the convention to decide what to do about the delegations from Michigan and Florida whose state parties broke the rules and held their contests early. If (and this is a big if) the rules committee decides to seat the entire delegation of each state as allocated by the rule-breaking elections that were held, Clinton stands to net 36 delegates from Florida and anywhere from 18 delegates up to 55 (*very* unlikely) from the Michigan contest, depending upon how the 'uncommitted' delegates are allocated (since Obama wasn't even on the ballot in Michigan). Thus, the Clinton campaign could net anywhere from 56-91 delegates from this, best-case scenario for them.
2) Sunday, June 1st: Puerto Rico holds their nominating process with 55 pledged delegates at stake. Giving Clinton a 2-1 margin of victory, in line with her successes in WV/KY (i.e. being very generous to Clinton) she could pick up 17 delegates from this contest.
3) Tuesday, June 3rd: Montana and South Dakota hold their nominating elections, with a total of 31 delegates (16 from MT, 15 from SD) at stake. Assuming Clinton wins 2/3 of the vote in both of those contests (being very, very generous to Clinton on this point), she could net a max of about 11 delegates from these two states. Thus she has the potential to net 28 delegates over the last three remaining contests, maximum, and that's probably being very generous to her chances in Montana and South Dakota.
Let's assume that all three of these events play out in an absolute best-case-scenario for the Clinton camp: she nets 28 delegates from the remaining contests and picks up 91 delegates by the seating of the in-violation MI and FL delegations. That's a potential pick up of 119 pledged delegates to Clinton which is not enough to catch Obama's lead of 154 pledged delegates. So, what is her endgame.
Some have suggested that she might be trying to force the Obama campaign's hand on a VP offer:
This has potential, and Obama would have to consider it (perhaps begrudgingly).
HOWEVER, in my opinion the events of today have changed the landscape a bit. Today, in an interview with a SD newspaper editorial board, Clinton suggested that Democratic nomination contests have stretched into June before. She cited (as specific examples) the campaign of her husband in 1992 and the campaign of Robert F. Kennedy in 1968. Here's the clip:
Now, Clinton's remarks are probably an unfortunate campaign gaffe. Rather than stating that RFK's nomination fight extended into June, she brought up his assassination. This is unfortunate for Clinton because a) political assassination has become a touchy subject on the campaign trail this spring and b) Ted Kennedy has been in the news lately for his poor health and also his support of Obama's candidacy.
(here's the analysis of a couple of other blogs)
People have been (unfairly) reading into Clinton's statement that her rationale for staying in the race is that Obama could be assassinated. This is in line with her statements of "as far as I know" Obama is not a Muslim. In addition, when called to clarify/apologize for her statements, she apologized solely to the Kennedys without a mention of Obama. It seems like a gaffe - and probably is a gaffe - but for a political machine as shrewd as Clinton's, this kind of thing gets heavily scrutinized. (Apparently this isn't the first time she's made comments that recall Kennedy's assassination and linking it to the length of this nomination campaign - to me, this smacks of Mark Penn).
Ultimately I think this diminishes her leverage with the Obama campaign over the whole VP issue. However, it remains to be seen what the fallout from her statements today will be and how that will play upon the events of the next two weeks. I hope that through the rules committee meeting and other discussions between the campaigns in the near future a suitable resolution is achieved that allows:
- The contested MI & FL delegations to be (at least) partially seated so that 'disenfranchisement' doesn't become synonymous with the Obama campaign
- Clinton to gracefully exit the race
- Obama to be seen as the candidate unifying the party, healing wounds, and choosing an appropriate VP candidate (and not having one foisted upon him)
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